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By Christine de la Maisonneuve & Joaquim Oliveira Martins

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6% for both Medicare and Medicaid in 2010 decreasing to 1% for Medicare and to 0 for Medicaid in 2087. 1 in 2010 decreasing to 1 in 2060. 63. As a consequence of these different assumptions, the EC projected increases in health-care expenditure are the lowest due to the nearly unitary income elasticity associated with the absence of a residual growth. The IMF projections, although difficult to compare as they end in 2050, seem to range between the OECD cost-containment and cost-pressure scenarios.

Estimation of the survivor expenditure curve 89. 1. 5. 41. 005. 00002. ,97) For each country, this expenditure curve by age group is multiplied by country-specific population by age group in order to obtain a total country-specific health expenditure. This expenditure is then calibrated to the OECD database total expenditure in the base year. 47 ECO/WKP(2013)40 APPENDIX 3: INCOME ELASTICITY: REVIEW OF LITERATURE 90. Whether health care is a luxury (income elasticity above one) or a necessity (elasticity below one) remains an unsettled issue.

Their estimation controls for cross-section dependence and unobserved heterogeneity. As others in the literature they find health expenditure and income to be non-stationary and co-integrated. Their elasticity estimates across states vary widely. However in the majority of them, the elasticity is lower than one. Their result suggests that health is a necessity rather than a luxury. 99. According to Atella and Marini (2004), the disagreement about income elasticity comes from two sources: the inclusion of specific regressors and functional specification used to estimate the parameter.

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